Persistent inflationary pressures from global energy shocks have anchored the South African Reserve Bank’s repo rate at 7.25% following the September 2026 hike, driving the 65.5% implied probability of no change at the March 2027 meeting. Headline CPI stood at 4.5% year-on-year in September, above the 3% target amid elevated fuel and transport costs, with forecasts indicating a peak above 5% before a gradual return toward target by late 2027. Weak domestic growth, high unemployment at 33.7% in Q3 2026, and the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model favoring broadly stable rates through year-end support trader consensus for a hold, though October CPI data and the November 19 decision could shift the near-term path if second-round effects intensify.