**Strong second-weekend holds for tentpoles like Spider-Man: Brand New Day are tempered by the film’s record $360 million domestic debut, which sets a high bar even with positive momentum.** The Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Sony/Marvel release earned rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and delivered euphoric word-of-mouth, powering a swift $1.05 billion global gross in under a week and minimal competition through early August. Historical patterns for similar MCU and superhero launches show typical 45-60% drops after massive openings, positioning sub-$180 million as the consensus outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Traders are watching daily tracking and any late reviews for signs of exceptional legs that could push into the 180-190 million range. The next major catalyst arrives with Friday’s actual second-weekend numbers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 76%
180-190m 12%
210-220m 7%
190-200m 5%
NEW
$10,257 Vol.
NEW
$10,257 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
76%
180-190m
12%
190-200m
5%
200-210m
4%
210-220m
7%
220m+
3%
<180m 76%
180-190m 12%
210-220m 7%
190-200m 5%
NEW
$10,257 Vol.
NEW
$10,257 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180m
$4,847 Vol.
76%
180-190m
$710 Vol.
12%
190-200m
$710 Vol.
5%
200-210m
$756 Vol.
4%
210-220m
$936 Vol.
7%
220m+
$2,298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend holds for tentpoles like Spider-Man: Brand New Day are tempered by the film’s record $360 million domestic debut, which sets a high bar even with positive momentum.** The Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Sony/Marvel release earned rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and delivered euphoric word-of-mouth, powering a swift $1.05 billion global gross in under a week and minimal competition through early August. Historical patterns for similar MCU and superhero launches show typical 45-60% drops after massive openings, positioning sub-$180 million as the consensus outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Traders are watching daily tracking and any late reviews for signs of exceptional legs that could push into the 180-190 million range. The next major catalyst arrives with Friday’s actual second-weekend numbers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$10,257End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend holds for tentpoles like Spider-Man: Brand New Day are tempered by the film’s record $360 million domestic debut, which sets a high bar even with positive momentum.** The Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Sony/Marvel release earned rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and delivered euphoric word-of-mouth, powering a swift $1.05 billion global gross in under a week and minimal competition through early August. Historical patterns for similar MCU and superhero launches show typical 45-60% drops after massive openings, positioning sub-$180 million as the consensus outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Traders are watching daily tracking and any late reviews for signs of exceptional legs that could push into the 180-190 million range. The next major catalyst arrives with Friday’s actual second-weekend numbers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$10,257End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong second-weekend holds for tentpoles like Spider-Man: Brand New Day are tempered by the film’s record $360 million domestic debut, which sets a high bar even with positive momentum.** The Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Sony/Marvel release earned rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and delivered euphoric word-of-mouth, powering a swift $1.05 billion global gross in under a week and minimal competition through early August. Historical patterns for similar MCU and superhero launches show typical 45-60% drops after massive openings, positioning sub-$180 million as the consensus outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Traders are watching daily tracking and any late reviews for signs of exceptional legs that could push into the 180-190 million range. The next major catalyst arrives with Friday’s actual second-weekend numbers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions