Strong audience retention and minimal late-summer competition underpin the market’s overwhelming 90.5% implied probability for a $15 million-plus sixth weekend. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” posted a record $360 million domestic opening and has maintained the top spot through its fifth frame while crossing $898 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide by early September. Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, favorable word-of-mouth, and the Labor Day holiday bump provide additional tailwinds. A realistic upset below $15 million would require an unexpectedly sharp drop-off or a surprise counterprogramming release, though historical legs for comparable MCU titles make such a steep decline unlikely before the holiday frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office
15m+ 91%
14-15m 9%
13-14m 1.2%
12-13m <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<11m
<1%
11-12m
<1%
12-13m
<1%
13-14m
1%
14-15m
9%
15m+
91%
15m+ 91%
14-15m 9%
13-14m 1.2%
12-13m <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<11m
$863 Vol.
<1%
11-12m
$956 Vol.
<1%
12-13m
$884 Vol.
<1%
13-14m
$859 Vol.
1%
14-15m
$2,315 Vol.
9%
15m+
$3,685 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and minimal late-summer competition underpin the market’s overwhelming 90.5% implied probability for a $15 million-plus sixth weekend. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” posted a record $360 million domestic opening and has maintained the top spot through its fifth frame while crossing $898 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide by early September. Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, favorable word-of-mouth, and the Labor Day holiday bump provide additional tailwinds. A realistic upset below $15 million would require an unexpectedly sharp drop-off or a surprise counterprogramming release, though historical legs for comparable MCU titles make such a steep decline unlikely before the holiday frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$9,562End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong audience retention and minimal late-summer competition underpin the market’s overwhelming 90.5% implied probability for a $15 million-plus sixth weekend. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” posted a record $360 million domestic opening and has maintained the top spot through its fifth frame while crossing $898 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide by early September. Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, favorable word-of-mouth, and the Labor Day holiday bump provide additional tailwinds. A realistic upset below $15 million would require an unexpectedly sharp drop-off or a surprise counterprogramming release, though historical legs for comparable MCU titles make such a steep decline unlikely before the holiday frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 4 - 6) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$9,562End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong audience retention and minimal late-summer competition underpin the market’s overwhelming 90.5% implied probability for a $15 million-plus sixth weekend. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” posted a record $360 million domestic opening and has maintained the top spot through its fifth frame while crossing $898 million domestically and $2.34 billion worldwide by early September. Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, favorable word-of-mouth, and the Labor Day holiday bump provide additional tailwinds. A realistic upset below $15 million would require an unexpectedly sharp drop-off or a surprise counterprogramming release, though historical legs for comparable MCU titles make such a steep decline unlikely before the holiday frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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