Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31 has propelled it to $449 million after just five days, driving the 80.8% market-implied probability for a $900 million-plus total by August 31. The Tom Holland-led MCU entry shattered the previous North American debut benchmark held by Avengers: Endgame, sustained strong midweek holds with Tuesday earnings of $42 million, and crossed $1.15 billion worldwide in record time, reflecting robust audience demand and front-loaded event positioning. With four weeks remaining before the August 31 cutoff and minimal competition in the immediate window, trader consensus views further acceleration toward or beyond $1 billion domestically as the base case, though late-summer legs will ultimately determine whether it clears that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
900m+ 80.8%
800 - 900m 18%
700 - 800m 2.6%
600 - 700m <1%
$340,788 Vol.
$340,788 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<400m
<1%
400 - 500m
<1%
500 - 600m
<1%
600 - 700m
1%
700 - 800m
3%
800 - 900m
18%
900m+
81%
900m+ 80.8%
800 - 900m 18%
700 - 800m 2.6%
600 - 700m <1%
$340,788 Vol.
$340,788 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<400m
$5,823 Vol.
<1%
400 - 500m
$19,618 Vol.
<1%
500 - 600m
$25,247 Vol.
<1%
600 - 700m
$26,695 Vol.
1%
700 - 800m
$23,069 Vol.
3%
800 - 900m
$37,935 Vol.
18%
900m+
$202,471 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31 has propelled it to $449 million after just five days, driving the 80.8% market-implied probability for a $900 million-plus total by August 31. The Tom Holland-led MCU entry shattered the previous North American debut benchmark held by Avengers: Endgame, sustained strong midweek holds with Tuesday earnings of $42 million, and crossed $1.15 billion worldwide in record time, reflecting robust audience demand and front-loaded event positioning. With four weeks remaining before the August 31 cutoff and minimal competition in the immediate window, trader consensus views further acceleration toward or beyond $1 billion domestically as the base case, though late-summer legs will ultimately determine whether it clears that threshold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$340,788End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31 has propelled it to $449 million after just five days, driving the 80.8% market-implied probability for a $900 million-plus total by August 31. The Tom Holland-led MCU entry shattered the previous North American debut benchmark held by Avengers: Endgame, sustained strong midweek holds with Tuesday earnings of $42 million, and crossed $1.15 billion worldwide in record time, reflecting robust audience demand and front-loaded event positioning. With four weeks remaining before the August 31 cutoff and minimal competition in the immediate window, trader consensus views further acceleration toward or beyond $1 billion domestically as the base case, though late-summer legs will ultimately determine whether it clears that threshold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$340,788End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend on July 31 has propelled it to $449 million after just five days, driving the 80.8% market-implied probability for a $900 million-plus total by August 31. The Tom Holland-led MCU entry shattered the previous North American debut benchmark held by Avengers: Endgame, sustained strong midweek holds with Tuesday earnings of $42 million, and crossed $1.15 billion worldwide in record time, reflecting robust audience demand and front-loaded event positioning. With four weeks remaining before the August 31 cutoff and minimal competition in the immediate window, trader consensus views further acceleration toward or beyond $1 billion domestically as the base case, though late-summer legs will ultimately determine whether it clears that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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