President Trump has maintained the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, imposed in mid-April 2026 to pressure Tehran amid the ongoing conflict, while pausing the brief "Project Freedom" escort operation launched on May 4 to facilitate negotiations. Recent diplomacy, including a May 14 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that affirmed the need for open navigation and reports of Iranian review of U.S. proposals, centers on conditions for ending the war and restoring free transit. Any announcement lifting the blockade would likely follow a finalized agreement addressing oil exports, sanctions relief, and security guarantees, with traders monitoring White House statements, Senate briefings, and Central Command updates for resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUK gathers 40 countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 8%13%
Britain convened a virtual summit of 40+ nations urging Iran to reopen the strait. Although the U.S. did not attend, the diplomatic pressure raised expectations of a negotiated lift, briefly lifting market odds.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay until Iran agrees to deal
May 31 dips to 20%3%
Trump’s reaffirmation that the blockade remains tied to a diplomatic deal reinforced traders’ belief that a lift was unlikely before the end of May, pushing Yes prices down further.
Trump hints at possible future lift but offers no concrete date
Trump made a vague comment about a potential future lift without specifying a date, which failed to restore market confidence, keeping prices low.
UK hosts multinational summit urging Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic push by over 40 countries highlighted continued international pressure on Iran, but without a US announcement of lifting the blockade, market sentiment remained low for a lift by any of the target dates.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
A strong jobs report lifted broader market sentiment, temporarily offsetting war‑related risks and causing a modest rebound in the Yes probability for later dates.
Oil prices dip as markets hope for Hormuz reopening
May 31 plunges to 23%17%
A modest fall in oil prices reflected fleeting optimism that the blockade might ease, briefly lifting Yes odds before the next escalation.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal and reaffirms blockade
Trump publicly stated he was not satisfied with Iran’s peace proposal and that the US blockade would remain in full force, dampening hopes of a quick resolution and pushing prices lower.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay in force on Truth Social
May 22 plunges to 12%18%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay until Tehran accepts a U.S. deal, removing any speculation of a near‑term lift and pulling the market sharply down.
UK leads international talks to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 52%3%
Britain convened diplomats from over 40 countries to discuss ways to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern over the blockade's economic impact. The US did not attend, reflecting ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty about blockade resolution.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
May 15 dips to 9%2%
Strong US economic data temporarily eased market fears about the blockade’s impact, nudging Yes prices slightly higher for the earliest dates before they fell again later in the week.
US stocks hit records as jobs report overshadows higher oil prices, but oil remains elevated
A strong jobs report temporarily lifted market optimism, but persistent high oil prices tied to the blockade limited the rally, contributing to a modest price rebound before the next decline.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, pushing prices lower for all outcome dates.
Trump orders "shoot and kill" of small boats in Hormuz
Trump announced a more aggressive posture, authorising U.S. forces to engage small Iranian vessels, signaling no imminent de‑escalation and driving the market further down.
U.S. Senate debates War Powers Resolution, no change to blockade
May 31 drops to 40%9%
Legislative inaction signaled the blockade would persist, keeping Yes probabilities low for all dates.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 41%1%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action reinforced the US commitment to the blockade and diminished market hopes for an imminent lifting by May 31.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
U.S. forces engaged Iranian tankers, underscoring ongoing hostilities and reducing market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by any of the listed dates.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
May 22 plunges to 35%25%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 22 drops to 29%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining hopes for an early blockade lift. This action contributed to market declines in the probability of the blockade ending by May dates.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade amid ceasefire talks
May 31 jumps to 40%12%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, signaling continued enforcement despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This action maintained pressure on Iran and indicated the blockade would not be lifted imminently, contributing to market declines.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the strait
The seizure marked the first interception since the blockade began, reinforcing the perception that the US would not lift the blockade soon, further depressing prices.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 14%10%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
U.S. Navy disables two Iranian tankers breaching Hormuz blockade
May 22 plunges to 37%24%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade; the action reinforced the blockade’s enforcement and drove the market lower as prospects for reopening dimmed.
Iran fires on ships after U.S. blockade continues
May 31 surges to 49%21%
Renewed Iranian attacks reinforced the perception that the blockade would not be lifted soon, further depressing Yes prices.
Trump hints at possible “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
Trump announced a new initiative to facilitate ship movements, sparking a brief market rally as traders saw a potential path to lifting the blockade.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait
U.S. Navy action against Iranian tankers underscored the ongoing enforcement of the blockade, further reducing confidence that the blockade would be lifted soon.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the strait
U.S. Navy engaged Iranian tankers, disabling them and underscoring that the US blockade remained active, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for a near‑term lift.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
May 31 drops to 28%13%
The brief hope of a guided exit raised Yes odds briefly, but the sudden pause reversed optimism, driving the price down sharply.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Continued US military engagement kept the blockade in effect and underscored the lack of any imminent de‑escalation, driving prices lower.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 20%14%
Trump unveiled a plan to allow limited ship movements, creating brief optimism that the blockade might be eased, which temporarily lifted Yes prices for the nearer dates.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 41%7%
The escalation demonstrated the blockade’s active enforcement, causing another drop in Yes probabilities for a near‑term lift.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation to the US blockade. This escalation heightened global energy concerns and diminished prospects for the blockade being lifted soon, negatively affecting market prices.
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 44%16%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but no direct US involvement or lifting of blockade.
Trump announces temporary pause to Hormuz blockade – ‘Project Freedom’
June 30 jumps to 74%9%
Trump announced a 3‑day pause to the blockade to allow “Project Freedom” to guide ships through the strait, giving traders hope of a near‑term reopening and moving the market sharply higher.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 22 drops to 28%5%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan as mediators tried to revive ceasefire negotiations, but President Trump suggested talks could happen by phone instead, indicating ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear progress toward lifting the blockade.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 drops to 57%6%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan amid mediation efforts, but President Trump indicated direct talks could occur by phone instead of sending envoys, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no indication of lifting the blockade.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, halting talks
Trump announced he had told his envoys not to travel to Islamabad, effectively pausing diplomatic efforts that might have led to a blockade lift, pushing prices lower.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 64%11%
President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran talks, citing wasted time and lack of progress. This move reflected stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the blockade and war, reducing market optimism for an imminent lifting of the blockade.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 56%8%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran talks, citing lack of progress and ongoing blockade enforcement. This signaled stalled diplomatic efforts and reduced market optimism for lifting the blockade by May 31 or May 22.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, halts diplomatic push
June 30 dips to 73%1%
By pulling back diplomatic engagement, Trump reinforced the stance that the blockade would stay in place, further depressing the market’s Yes outlook.
Talks between U.S. and Iran stumble as Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan
May 22 plunges to 33%27%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations. This development reduced market optimism about a near-term resolution and lifting of the blockade.
U.S. Central Command: 23 ships turned back in first day of blockade
May 31 drops to 64%13%
A U.S. Central Command briefing reported that 23 Iranian‑flagged ships had been turned back in the first 24 hours of the blockade, confirming the operational intensity of the blockade and causing a temporary market bounce.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s offer removed a potential diplomatic pathway to lifting the blockade, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 63%13%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and maintaining the blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and sustained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for a near-term blockade lift.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 31 drops to 54%10%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, indicating no imminent resolution and continuation of the blockade, which further lowered market expectations for lifting the blockade by May deadlines.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further ceasefire talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and ongoing US naval blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and maintained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for lifting the blockade by May 22.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 60%4%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling stalled negotiations and continued uncertainty over the blockade's future.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace offer signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish for a lift.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade remains in full force
May 31 surges to 85%17%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay “in full force” and that he would not send envoys to Pakistan, reinforcing the expectation that the blockade would continue and pushing the market further down.
Trump says U.S. blockade will stay in force despite cease‑fire talks
During a press briefing Trump reiterated that the blockade remains active while diplomatic talks continue, reinforcing market belief that a lift is unlikely in the short term.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
June 30 dips to 74%1%
Trump’s public dismissal signaled continued U.S. pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping Yes probabilities low.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed again and began firing on vessels, linking the closure directly to the U.S. blockade and removing any optimism of a quick lift.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
June 30 surges to 71%18%
The first interception since the blockade began heightened tensions and reinforced expectations that the blockade would continue, further reducing Yes prices.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%21%
The U.S. Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, marking the first such interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market perceptions of the blockade's continuation.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
The first interception since the blockade began signaled a hardening US stance, prompting a further drop in market confidence that the blockade would end soon.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 82%34%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting market confidence in the blockade being lifted soon.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 rises to 75%4%
Iran’s retaliation underscored the blockade’s persistence, prompting a sharp rise in Yes prices as traders saw little chance of an early lift.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 jumps to 82%7%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first interception since the blockade began. This event heightened tensions and diminished prospects for lifting the blockade soon.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
May 31 drops to 75%10%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, directly responding to the US blockade of Iranian ports. This escalation increased the risk of conflict and reduced market optimism for the blockade ending soon.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fully closes the Strait and fires on ships
Iran announced a complete closure of the strait and began firing on vessels, tying the reopening directly to the U.S. blockade and pushing market odds of a lift even lower.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was fully closed and engaged vessels, heightening the risk of continued conflict and reducing optimism that the US would lift its blockade soon.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 surges to 71%18%
The IRGC announced it had fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and would fire on any vessel attempting to pass, directly counter‑acting the U.S. blockade and sharply lowering market confidence that the waterway would reopen soon.
Iran fires on ships attempting to transit the strait
Following the closure, IRGC gunboats opened fire on commercial vessels, confirming that the strait remained closed and reinforcing market pessimism about a lift of the blockade.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed and engaged vessels attempting passage, further reducing expectations of a quick lift.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz in retaliation
The IRGC announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel approaching would be considered hostile, directly countering the US blockade and heightening the risk of continued closure.
Trump says blockade will remain in full force
Two days after the initial announcement, Trump reiterated that the blockade would stay "in full force" despite Iran’s tentative reopening of the strait, reinforcing market expectations that the lift was unlikely.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s offer, reaffirming the blockade and lowering expectations that the U.S. would lift it soon, further depressing the market.
Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s ports and the Hormuz waterway, signaling no imminent lift of the blockade and reducing market confidence in a near‑term end.
President Trump announces U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the ongoing conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and economic impacts globally.
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade on Monday, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian vessels to transit the strait until a deal is reached, intensifying market fears of a prolonged closure.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump publicly declared a full naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement raised expectations that the blockade would remain in force, pushing the market up.
Trump declares U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 86%38%
President Donald Trump announced that the United States had begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal was reached. This initial announcement drove the market’s sharp rise in early April as traders priced in a longer‑term blockade.
President Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports on April 13, 2026, following failed ceasefire talks with Iran. This announcement initiated the blockade and set the stage for ongoing tensions and negotiations, impacting market expectations for the blockade's duration.
President Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 dips to 53%3%
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of Iran’s ports to pressure Tehran to end the war, signaling no imminent lift of the Hormuz blockade and pushing Yes probabilities lower for all dates.
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 84%36%
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and heightened tensions, impacting market expectations for the blockade's duration.
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