National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks show a marginal severe risk on September 29, 2026, focused on southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, where a remnant tropical system from Hurricane Polo is interacting with an approaching upper-level trough to boost moisture, deep-layer shear, and low-level hodographs. This setup supports scattered storms with potential for isolated supercells, favoring a localized tornado threat alongside gusts despite modest instability. Two-percent tornado probabilities cover areas near Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, and Odessa, Texas. A slight risk upgrade with similar tornado odds shifts into the southern Plains on September 30. Traders monitoring resolution criteria will watch updated SPC Day 1 graphics, short-term mesoscale discussions, and any new model consensus on storm mode or timing.