Traders assign a 97.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the remaining two-week window leaves insufficient time for the required diplomatic negotiations, public announcements, and formal signings. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while ongoing discussions with candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian statehood and broader regional security dynamics involving Iran. Syria and other potential partners face similar procedural and political hurdles. A last-minute bilateral breakthrough or surprise declaration by an already-normalized state could theoretically alter the outcome, yet no verifiable diplomatic momentum supports such a development before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$53,711 Vol.
$53,711 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
3% chance
$53,711 Vol.
$53,711 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the remaining two-week window leaves insufficient time for the required diplomatic negotiations, public announcements, and formal signings. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while ongoing discussions with candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian statehood and broader regional security dynamics involving Iran. Syria and other potential partners face similar procedural and political hurdles. A last-minute bilateral breakthrough or surprise declaration by an already-normalized state could theoretically alter the outcome, yet no verifiable diplomatic momentum supports such a development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$53,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the remaining two-week window leaves insufficient time for the required diplomatic negotiations, public announcements, and formal signings. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while ongoing discussions with candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian statehood and broader regional security dynamics involving Iran. Syria and other potential partners face similar procedural and political hurdles. A last-minute bilateral breakthrough or surprise declaration by an already-normalized state could theoretically alter the outcome, yet no verifiable diplomatic momentum supports such a development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$53,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the remaining two-week window leaves insufficient time for the required diplomatic negotiations, public announcements, and formal signings. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 marked the most recent expansion, while ongoing discussions with candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian statehood and broader regional security dynamics involving Iran. Syria and other potential partners face similar procedural and political hurdles. A last-minute bilateral breakthrough or surprise declaration by an already-normalized state could theoretically alter the outcome, yet no verifiable diplomatic momentum supports such a development before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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