The near-certain trader consensus on no new accession by August 31 stems primarily from the absence of active bilateral negotiations or scheduled diplomatic events positioned to produce a formal normalization agreement in the remaining days. Kazakhstan's November 2025 entry marked the most recent expansion, while major prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia continue to link any normalization to verifiable progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional dynamics. Other candidates face procedural, security, or domestic hurdles that typically require extended timelines for announcements, signings, and ratification. Although late diplomatic surprises or accelerated talks remain theoretically possible, they would require an unprecedented compression of standard processes without supporting public signals or summit activity in the current window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$53,872 Vol.
$53,872 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
3% chance
$53,872 Vol.
$53,872 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain trader consensus on no new accession by August 31 stems primarily from the absence of active bilateral negotiations or scheduled diplomatic events positioned to produce a formal normalization agreement in the remaining days. Kazakhstan's November 2025 entry marked the most recent expansion, while major prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia continue to link any normalization to verifiable progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional dynamics. Other candidates face procedural, security, or domestic hurdles that typically require extended timelines for announcements, signings, and ratification. Although late diplomatic surprises or accelerated talks remain theoretically possible, they would require an unprecedented compression of standard processes without supporting public signals or summit activity in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$53,872End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain trader consensus on no new accession by August 31 stems primarily from the absence of active bilateral negotiations or scheduled diplomatic events positioned to produce a formal normalization agreement in the remaining days. Kazakhstan's November 2025 entry marked the most recent expansion, while major prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia continue to link any normalization to verifiable progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional dynamics. Other candidates face procedural, security, or domestic hurdles that typically require extended timelines for announcements, signings, and ratification. Although late diplomatic surprises or accelerated talks remain theoretically possible, they would require an unprecedented compression of standard processes without supporting public signals or summit activity in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$53,872End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on no new accession by August 31 stems primarily from the absence of active bilateral negotiations or scheduled diplomatic events positioned to produce a formal normalization agreement in the remaining days. Kazakhstan's November 2025 entry marked the most recent expansion, while major prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia continue to link any normalization to verifiable progress on Palestinian statehood amid ongoing regional dynamics. Other candidates face procedural, security, or domestic hurdles that typically require extended timelines for announcements, signings, and ratification. Although late diplomatic surprises or accelerated talks remain theoretically possible, they would require an unprecedented compression of standard processes without supporting public signals or summit activity in the current window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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