Courts have consistently rejected claims of widespread fraud sufficient to alter the certified 2020 presidential election results, with more than sixty post-election lawsuits dismissed on grounds including lack of standing and insufficient evidence. Recent developments reinforce this record: multiple state cases involving alternate electors have been dismissed, federal subpoenas seeking 2020 records have been quashed due to expired statutes of limitations and investigative limits, and ongoing litigation over executive actions on voting has featured judicial findings of no supporting evidence of fraud. Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no affirmative ruling by the December 2026 resolution date, reflecting these procedural and evidentiary barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as newly discovered admissible evidence in an active proceeding, remain theoretically possible but face steep hurdles given the passage of time and precedent.