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Politics·ICC

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Politics·ICC

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

13% chance
Polymarket

$99,211 Vol.

13% chance
Polymarket

$99,211 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.

A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.

Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.

The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,211
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.

A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.

Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.

The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,211
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" has generated $99.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.