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icon for Will Drake release Iceman by...?

Will Drake release Iceman by...?

icon for Will Drake release Iceman by...?

Will Drake release Iceman by...?

$748,250 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$748,250 Vol.

Polymarket

February 28

$19,309 Vol.

No

March 31

$74,220 Vol.

No

April 30

$310,846 Vol.

No

May 8

$65,476 Vol.

No

May 15

$61,536 Vol.

Yes

May 31

$127,290 Vol.

Yes

June 30

$89,571 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Drake surprise-dropped his ninth studio album Iceman on May 15, 2026, alongside unexpected companion projects Habibti and Maid of Honour, capping a viral rollout that included massive ice-block installations in Toronto and a streamer leak confirming the date. This move follows late April official announcements from OVO Sound and Republic Records, amid heightened anticipation post his 2024-2025 Kendrick Lamar feud and Super Bowl LIX cultural ripple effects. Trader consensus on Polymarket crystallized around this timeline due to escalating teasers, confirmed features like Future and Karol G, and Drake's history of strategic surprise releases driving massive first-week streams. With the album now live on platforms like Apple Music and Spotify, focus shifts to Billboard 200 debut projections exceeding 600K units and potential chart dominance amid summer competition.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$748,250
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 4:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Drake surprise-dropped his ninth studio album Iceman on May 15, 2026, alongside unexpected companion projects Habibti and Maid of Honour, capping a viral rollout that included massive ice-block installations in Toronto and a streamer leak confirming the date. This move follows late April official announcements from OVO Sound and Republic Records, amid heightened anticipation post his 2024-2025 Kendrick Lamar feud and Super Bowl LIX cultural ripple effects. Trader consensus on Polymarket crystallized around this timeline due to escalating teasers, confirmed features like Future and Karol G, and Drake's history of strategic surprise releases driving massive first-week streams. With the album now live on platforms like Apple Music and Spotify, focus shifts to Billboard 200 debut projections exceeding 600K units and potential chart dominance amid summer competition.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$748,250
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 4:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Drake release Iceman by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 15" at 100%, followed by "May 31" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Drake release Iceman by...?" has generated $748.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Drake release Iceman by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Drake release Iceman by...?" is "May 15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Drake release Iceman by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.