Israeli leaders have maintained that no full withdrawal from Gaza will occur until Hamas is fully disarmed, creating deadlock in the second phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began in October 2025. Following U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s mid-August 2026 meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israeli strikes intensified, with the IDF targeting Hamas commanders and weapons sites while expanding control along the Yellow Line beyond 60 percent of the territory. Senior officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, have reiterated commitments to degrade Hamas capabilities and prevent rebuilding, without announcing a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. These incremental operations and stalled disarmament talks continue to shape assessments of escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$752,120 Vol.
Oct 30, 2025
December 31
12%
$752,120 Vol.
December 31
$102,488 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli leaders have maintained that no full withdrawal from Gaza will occur until Hamas is fully disarmed, creating deadlock in the second phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began in October 2025. Following U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s mid-August 2026 meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israeli strikes intensified, with the IDF targeting Hamas commanders and weapons sites while expanding control along the Yellow Line beyond 60 percent of the territory. Senior officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, have reiterated commitments to degrade Hamas capabilities and prevent rebuilding, without announcing a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. These incremental operations and stalled disarmament talks continue to shape assessments of escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$752,120End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli leaders have maintained that no full withdrawal from Gaza will occur until Hamas is fully disarmed, creating deadlock in the second phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began in October 2025. Following U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s mid-August 2026 meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israeli strikes intensified, with the IDF targeting Hamas commanders and weapons sites while expanding control along the Yellow Line beyond 60 percent of the territory. Senior officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, have reiterated commitments to degrade Hamas capabilities and prevent rebuilding, without announcing a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. These incremental operations and stalled disarmament talks continue to shape assessments of escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$752,120End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli leaders have maintained that no full withdrawal from Gaza will occur until Hamas is fully disarmed, creating deadlock in the second phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began in October 2025. Following U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s mid-August 2026 meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israeli strikes intensified, with the IDF targeting Hamas commanders and weapons sites while expanding control along the Yellow Line beyond 60 percent of the territory. Senior officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, have reiterated commitments to degrade Hamas capabilities and prevent rebuilding, without announcing a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. These incremental operations and stalled disarmament talks continue to shape assessments of escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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