Tropical Storm Surigae, currently positioned about 790 km south-southeast of Okinawa with sustained winds near 74 km/h, is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center to intensify into a typhoon and reach Category 1 strength while passing south of Okinawa early next week. Model consensus shows the system then accelerating northeastward, paralleling the Ryukyu Islands and Japan’s main islands offshore rather than crossing the coastline. This steering pattern, influenced by a mid-latitude trough and subtropical ridge, supports the 84.5% market-implied probability of no landfall. An unusually active 2026 western Pacific season, with 11 systems approaching Japan since June, adds context, though Surigae’s track uncertainty remains the dominant near-term factor for traders.