Persistent inflation near 3.3% and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept 30-year mortgage rates elevated near 6.4% as of mid-May 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields rising in response to higher oil prices and firm labor-market data. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains anchored around 3.5–3.75%, limiting downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project a 2026 average between 6.1% and 6.3%, reflecting modest easing only if inflation moderates and the Fed signals further accommodation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications, which could shift implied probabilities on whether rates breach key thresholds during the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
$49,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 7.00%
47%
↑ 6.75%
50%
↑ 6.50%
76%
↓ 5.90%
55%
↓ 5.70%
42%
↓ 5.50%
50%
$49,755 Vol.
↑ 7.00%
$26 Vol.
47%
↑ 6.75%
$118 Vol.
50%
↑ 6.50%
$6,700 Vol.
76%
↓ 5.90%
$6,005 Vol.
55%
↓ 5.70%
$6,769 Vol.
42%
↓ 5.50%
$25 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Persistent inflation near 3.3% and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept 30-year mortgage rates elevated near 6.4% as of mid-May 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields rising in response to higher oil prices and firm labor-market data. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains anchored around 3.5–3.75%, limiting downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project a 2026 average between 6.1% and 6.3%, reflecting modest easing only if inflation moderates and the Fed signals further accommodation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications, which could shift implied probabilities on whether rates breach key thresholds during the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$49,755End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Persistent inflation near 3.3% and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept 30-year mortgage rates elevated near 6.4% as of mid-May 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields rising in response to higher oil prices and firm labor-market data. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains anchored around 3.5–3.75%, limiting downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project a 2026 average between 6.1% and 6.3%, reflecting modest easing only if inflation moderates and the Fed signals further accommodation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications, which could shift implied probabilities on whether rates breach key thresholds during the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$49,755End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 3.3% and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept 30-year mortgage rates elevated near 6.4% as of mid-May 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields rising in response to higher oil prices and firm labor-market data. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains anchored around 3.5–3.75%, limiting downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project a 2026 average between 6.1% and 6.3%, reflecting modest easing only if inflation moderates and the Fed signals further accommodation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications, which could shift implied probabilities on whether rates breach key thresholds during the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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