Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks have identified zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield. Continuous radar and optical surveys through mid-2026 have detected only small fireballs well below megaton scale, consistent with the scientific base rate of roughly one such event every several hundred to thousand years. The near-certain consensus stems from these verified monitoring results rather than speculation. Remaining uncertainty centers on the slim chance of a previously undetected small asteroid discovered in the final months, though advancing detection capabilities continue to reduce that window.