Recent Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms, including a decisive U.S. Senate victory and multiple U.S. House flips in districts that supported the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, have strengthened trader views of North Carolina as leaning Democratic for 2028. Low presidential approval ratings and stronger performance among unaffiliated voters have contributed to this positioning. North Carolina retains its status as a competitive battleground with 16 electoral votes, where both parties are expected to invest heavily once nominees are selected. The Democratic Party contract reflects trader consensus on these trends, while the Republican Party contract and individual candidate markets at even odds indicate that no frontrunner has emerged and outcomes remain sensitive to future primary results and national conditions.