Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a majority in the House of Commons through three by-elections on April 13, 2026, and subsequent floor crossings, removing any immediate need to dissolve Parliament. Under Canada’s fixed-date election rules, the next contest is scheduled for October 2029, and a sitting majority typically avoids an early call unless facing a loss of confidence or strategic opportunity. Traders assign 98.8 percent probability to no election by June 30 because the current parliamentary arithmetic and polling stability provide little incentive for dissolution in the next six weeks. The only realistic paths to an earlier vote would involve sudden defections that erase the majority or an unexpected non-confidence motion, both of which remain distant based on recent seat counts and party positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$80,456 Vol.
$80,456 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$80,456 Vol.
$80,456 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a majority in the House of Commons through three by-elections on April 13, 2026, and subsequent floor crossings, removing any immediate need to dissolve Parliament. Under Canada’s fixed-date election rules, the next contest is scheduled for October 2029, and a sitting majority typically avoids an early call unless facing a loss of confidence or strategic opportunity. Traders assign 98.8 percent probability to no election by June 30 because the current parliamentary arithmetic and polling stability provide little incentive for dissolution in the next six weeks. The only realistic paths to an earlier vote would involve sudden defections that erase the majority or an unexpected non-confidence motion, both of which remain distant based on recent seat counts and party positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$80,456Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a majority in the House of Commons through three by-elections on April 13, 2026, and subsequent floor crossings, removing any immediate need to dissolve Parliament. Under Canada’s fixed-date election rules, the next contest is scheduled for October 2029, and a sitting majority typically avoids an early call unless facing a loss of confidence or strategic opportunity. Traders assign 98.8 percent probability to no election by June 30 because the current parliamentary arithmetic and polling stability provide little incentive for dissolution in the next six weeks. The only realistic paths to an earlier vote would involve sudden defections that erase the majority or an unexpected non-confidence motion, both of which remain distant based on recent seat counts and party positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$80,456Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a majority in the House of Commons through three by-elections on April 13, 2026, and subsequent floor crossings, removing any immediate need to dissolve Parliament. Under Canada’s fixed-date election rules, the next contest is scheduled for October 2029, and a sitting majority typically avoids an early call unless facing a loss of confidence or strategic opportunity. Traders assign 98.8 percent probability to no election by June 30 because the current parliamentary arithmetic and polling stability provide little incentive for dissolution in the next six weeks. The only realistic paths to an earlier vote would involve sudden defections that erase the majority or an unexpected non-confidence motion, both of which remain distant based on recent seat counts and party positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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