Brazil's Senate holds over 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, concentrated on figures such as Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing Banco Master-related disputes, yet none has advanced past the chamber president's discretion. A 2025 monocratic ruling raised the threshold to require prosecutor-general initiation and a two-thirds Senate supermajority, while no justice has ever been removed by this process in Brazilian history. With only months remaining before 2027 and the October 2026 elections renewing part of the Senate, opposition efforts to alter regimental rules face steep legislative and calendar obstacles. Trader consensus at 95.6% on "No" reflects these structural filters and compressed timeline. A major post-election shift in Senate leadership or an unforeseen constitutional crisis could still open a narrow path, though both remain low-probability within the window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$91,769 Vol.
$91,769 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$91,769 Vol.
$91,769 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate holds over 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, concentrated on figures such as Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing Banco Master-related disputes, yet none has advanced past the chamber president's discretion. A 2025 monocratic ruling raised the threshold to require prosecutor-general initiation and a two-thirds Senate supermajority, while no justice has ever been removed by this process in Brazilian history. With only months remaining before 2027 and the October 2026 elections renewing part of the Senate, opposition efforts to alter regimental rules face steep legislative and calendar obstacles. Trader consensus at 95.6% on "No" reflects these structural filters and compressed timeline. A major post-election shift in Senate leadership or an unforeseen constitutional crisis could still open a narrow path, though both remain low-probability within the window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$91,769Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate holds over 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, concentrated on figures such as Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing Banco Master-related disputes, yet none has advanced past the chamber president's discretion. A 2025 monocratic ruling raised the threshold to require prosecutor-general initiation and a two-thirds Senate supermajority, while no justice has ever been removed by this process in Brazilian history. With only months remaining before 2027 and the October 2026 elections renewing part of the Senate, opposition efforts to alter regimental rules face steep legislative and calendar obstacles. Trader consensus at 95.6% on "No" reflects these structural filters and compressed timeline. A major post-election shift in Senate leadership or an unforeseen constitutional crisis could still open a narrow path, though both remain low-probability within the window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$91,769Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate holds over 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, concentrated on figures such as Alexandre de Moraes amid ongoing Banco Master-related disputes, yet none has advanced past the chamber president's discretion. A 2025 monocratic ruling raised the threshold to require prosecutor-general initiation and a two-thirds Senate supermajority, while no justice has ever been removed by this process in Brazilian history. With only months remaining before 2027 and the October 2026 elections renewing part of the Senate, opposition efforts to alter regimental rules face steep legislative and calendar obstacles. Trader consensus at 95.6% on "No" reflects these structural filters and compressed timeline. A major post-election shift in Senate leadership or an unforeseen constitutional crisis could still open a narrow path, though both remain low-probability within the window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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