**Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 23, 2026, are the dominant near-term driver of trader sentiment.** Aziz Akhannouch, who has served as Head of Government since October 2021, announced in January 2026 that he would not seek a third term as leader of the National Rally of Independents (RNI) and would not stand as a candidate in the legislative vote. He stepped down from the party presidency in February 2026, with Mohamed Chaouki succeeding him. Under Morocco’s constitutional process, the King appoints the prime minister after elections, typically from the leading party or coalition in the 395-seat House of Representatives. Akhannouch’s withdrawal from party leadership and the ballot removes him from contention for reappointment, regardless of RNI performance. Recent campaign activity shows RNI defending its record on social reforms, education, and healthcare while facing opposition criticism over inflation, purchasing power, and unfulfilled pledges. These factors create a clear timeline: a new government is expected to form in the weeks after the September 23 vote, well before the December 31, 2026, resolution date. The 86.4% implied probability for “Yes” reflects trader consensus on this electoral transition and Akhannouch’s explicit decision to exit the leadership role.