The Bank of England’s April 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote, with one member favoring a 25 basis point hike, anchors trader expectations for no change at the June 18 meeting. March 2026 CPI inflation climbed to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price pass-through from Middle East supply disruptions, prompting Governor Bailey to flag unavoidable upside risks and potential forceful tightening later if oil costs remain elevated. Market-implied odds of 85.5% for no change reflect the MPC’s assessment that labor-market slack continues to dampen second-round effects despite the inflation overshoot, while the slim 14.5% probability on a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish dissent. April labor data and May wage figures will be the key near-term inputs shaping the June path versus official guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en juin ?
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England’s April 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote, with one member favoring a 25 basis point hike, anchors trader expectations for no change at the June 18 meeting. March 2026 CPI inflation climbed to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy price pass-through from Middle East supply disruptions, prompting Governor Bailey to flag unavoidable upside risks and potential forceful tightening later if oil costs remain elevated. Market-implied odds of 85.5% for no change reflect the MPC’s assessment that labor-market slack continues to dampen second-round effects despite the inflation overshoot, while the slim 14.5% probability on a 25 basis point increase captures lingering hawkish dissent. April labor data and May wage figures will be the key near-term inputs shaping the June path versus official guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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