Canada’s advance GDP estimate for July 2026 showed essentially flat monthly growth, with gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3% June increase. This preliminary reading, released alongside stronger second-quarter expenditure data showing 0.8% quarterly expansion led by exports and household spending, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1% outcome. Traders appear to price in limited upside from the flash figure while assigning notable weight to downside risks, consistent with ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, moderating population growth, and mixed signals from July employment gains alongside softer manufacturing shipments. The official July release on September 29 will incorporate revisions and set the tone ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,0 à 0,1 % 56%
<0,0 % 40%
0,2 à 0,3 % 2.5%
0,8 %+ <1%
$10,873 Vol.
$10,873 Vol.
29 sept. 2026
<0,0 %
40%
0,0 à 0,1 %
56%
0,2 à 0,3 %
3%
0,4 à 0,5 %
1%
0,6 à 0,7 %
1%
0,8 %+
1%
0,0 à 0,1 % 56%
<0,0 % 40%
0,2 à 0,3 % 2.5%
0,8 %+ <1%
$10,873 Vol.
$10,873 Vol.
29 sept. 2026
<0,0 %
$2,245 Vol.
40%
0,0 à 0,1 %
$1,267 Vol.
56%
0,2 à 0,3 %
$3,233 Vol.
3%
0,4 à 0,5 %
$1,950 Vol.
1%
0,6 à 0,7 %
$492 Vol.
1%
0,8 %+
$1,685 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s advance GDP estimate for July 2026 showed essentially flat monthly growth, with gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3% June increase. This preliminary reading, released alongside stronger second-quarter expenditure data showing 0.8% quarterly expansion led by exports and household spending, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1% outcome. Traders appear to price in limited upside from the flash figure while assigning notable weight to downside risks, consistent with ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, moderating population growth, and mixed signals from July employment gains alongside softer manufacturing shipments. The official July release on September 29 will incorporate revisions and set the tone ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$10,873Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s advance GDP estimate for July 2026 showed essentially flat monthly growth, with gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3% June increase. This preliminary reading, released alongside stronger second-quarter expenditure data showing 0.8% quarterly expansion led by exports and household spending, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1% outcome. Traders appear to price in limited upside from the flash figure while assigning notable weight to downside risks, consistent with ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, moderating population growth, and mixed signals from July employment gains alongside softer manufacturing shipments. The official July release on September 29 will incorporate revisions and set the tone ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Volume
$10,873Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Canada’s advance GDP estimate for July 2026 showed essentially flat monthly growth, with gains in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional services offset by declines in retail trade and manufacturing, following a 0.3% June increase. This preliminary reading, released alongside stronger second-quarter expenditure data showing 0.8% quarterly expansion led by exports and household spending, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a 0.0–0.1% outcome. Traders appear to price in limited upside from the flash figure while assigning notable weight to downside risks, consistent with ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, moderating population growth, and mixed signals from July employment gains alongside softer manufacturing shipments. The official July release on September 29 will incorporate revisions and set the tone ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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