Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.7% annualized, following avoidance of recession in 2025, anchors trader consensus on Polymarket at an 85% implied probability of no Canadian recession before 2027, reflecting resilience amid trade tensions and US tariffs. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in late April, supporting activity as CPI inflation edged to 2.4% year-over-year in March from gasoline pressures, while private forecasters project 1.1% GDP expansion this year and 1.9% in 2027. Softening labor conditions—with April unemployment rising to 6.9%—pose downside risks alongside weak consumer demand, per EDC analysis, but a former BoC governor's 30% recession odds underscore lingering uncertainty. Key catalysts include Q2 GDP data and the next FOMC-equivalent BoC review.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$66,841 Vol.
$66,841 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$66,841 Vol.
$66,841 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.7% annualized, following avoidance of recession in 2025, anchors trader consensus on Polymarket at an 85% implied probability of no Canadian recession before 2027, reflecting resilience amid trade tensions and US tariffs. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in late April, supporting activity as CPI inflation edged to 2.4% year-over-year in March from gasoline pressures, while private forecasters project 1.1% GDP expansion this year and 1.9% in 2027. Softening labor conditions—with April unemployment rising to 6.9%—pose downside risks alongside weak consumer demand, per EDC analysis, but a former BoC governor's 30% recession odds underscore lingering uncertainty. Key catalysts include Q2 GDP data and the next FOMC-equivalent BoC review.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Marché ouvert : Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$66,841Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.7% annualized, following avoidance of recession in 2025, anchors trader consensus on Polymarket at an 85% implied probability of no Canadian recession before 2027, reflecting resilience amid trade tensions and US tariffs. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in late April, supporting activity as CPI inflation edged to 2.4% year-over-year in March from gasoline pressures, while private forecasters project 1.1% GDP expansion this year and 1.9% in 2027. Softening labor conditions—with April unemployment rising to 6.9%—pose downside risks alongside weak consumer demand, per EDC analysis, but a former BoC governor's 30% recession odds underscore lingering uncertainty. Key catalysts include Q2 GDP data and the next FOMC-equivalent BoC review.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Volume
$66,841Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.7% annualized, following avoidance of recession in 2025, anchors trader consensus on Polymarket at an 85% implied probability of no Canadian recession before 2027, reflecting resilience amid trade tensions and US tariffs. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in late April, supporting activity as CPI inflation edged to 2.4% year-over-year in March from gasoline pressures, while private forecasters project 1.1% GDP expansion this year and 1.9% in 2027. Softening labor conditions—with April unemployment rising to 6.9%—pose downside risks alongside weak consumer demand, per EDC analysis, but a former BoC governor's 30% recession odds underscore lingering uncertainty. Key catalysts include Q2 GDP data and the next FOMC-equivalent BoC review.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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