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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Élection présidentielle colombienne

icon for Élection présidentielle colombienne
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Élection présidentielle colombienne

Abelardo de la Espriella 44%

Iván Cepeda Castro 43%

Paloma Valencia 13.7%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$29,264,609 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella 44%

Iván Cepeda Castro 43%

Paloma Valencia 13.7%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$29,264,609 Vol.

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$1,163,748 Vol.

44%

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$1,011,391 Vol.

43%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$1,217,728 Vol.

14%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,794,023 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo (DC)

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,745,660 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$1,150,544 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$627,014 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila (IND)

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,857,367 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López (IND)

Claudia López (IND)

$1,158,906 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez (IND)

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,819,055 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$1,518,487 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$5,762,070 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$708,114 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,782,319 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,493,805 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$694,239 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,305,568 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$430,214 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).The race for Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested as traders price in a fragmented field where Candidate M holds a narrow edge. Conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from consolidating the anti-incumbent vote while Iván Cepeda Castro draws from the governing coalition's base. Recent campaign activity, including regional rallies and debates, has produced only modest shifts in voter intention, with undecided ballots and regional turnout patterns continuing to limit separation. A strong performance in key departments or a late endorsement could consolidate one side and widen gaps before the runoff threshold, though the current balance leaves multiple paths open depending on final-week mobilization.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$29,264,609
Date de fin
21 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).The race for Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested as traders price in a fragmented field where Candidate M holds a narrow edge. Conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from consolidating the anti-incumbent vote while Iván Cepeda Castro draws from the governing coalition's base. Recent campaign activity, including regional rallies and debates, has produced only modest shifts in voter intention, with undecided ballots and regional turnout patterns continuing to limit separation. A strong performance in key departments or a late endorsement could consolidate one side and widen gaps before the runoff threshold, though the current balance leaves multiple paths open depending on final-week mobilization.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$29,264,609
Date de fin
21 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection présidentielle colombienne » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 19 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Abelardo de la Espriella » à 44%, suivi de « Iván Cepeda Castro » à 43%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 44¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle colombienne » a généré $29.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 29, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle colombienne », parcourez les 19 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle colombienne » est « Abelardo de la Espriella » à 44%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Iván Cepeda Castro » à 43%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle colombienne » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.