**Deep Fission’s proposed Nasdaq IPO, announced May 20, 2026, targets a $1.66 billion valuation at the $24–$26 per share midpoint for roughly 6 million shares plus the greenshoe option, aiming to raise $150–157 million.** Traders have assigned the highest implied probability (52%) to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion because the pre-revenue nuclear startup faces intense skepticism over its unproven borehole SMR design, execution risks for a first reactor targeted in 2026, and limited commercial traction despite DOE Reactor Pilot Program selection and an earlier $80 million financing round. Media coverage, including TechCrunch questioning the repeat public-listing attempt after a non-trading 2025 SPAC merger, and Seeking Alpha labeling the valuation “ultra-speculative,” has weighed on sentiment. The next most likely band ($1.25–1.5 billion at 26.4%) reflects partial absorption of the offering, while probabilities drop sharply above $1.75 billion given the company’s early-stage status and typical post-IPO volatility for similar advanced nuclear plays. The 20.5% chance of no IPO before August 2026 captures ongoing roadshow uncertainty and potential delays in SEC clearance or weak institutional demand. Key upcoming catalysts include final pricing, Nasdaq listing under FISN, and any NRC pre-application updates that could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<$1.25B 52.0%
$2.5B–$3.0B 14.2%
$1.75B–$2.0B 14.0%
$1.5B–$1.75B 6%
$19,221 Vol.
$19,221 Vol.
29 mai 2026
<$1.25B
52%
$1.25B–$1.5B
26%
$1.5B–$1.75B
6%
$1.75B–$2.0B
24%
$2.0B–$2.5B
9%
$2.5B–$3.0B
14%
$3.0B+
16%
No IPO before August 2026
21%
<$1.25B 52.0%
$2.5B–$3.0B 14.2%
$1.75B–$2.0B 14.0%
$1.5B–$1.75B 6%
$19,221 Vol.
$19,221 Vol.
29 mai 2026
<$1.25B
$1,070 Vol.
52%
$1.25B–$1.5B
$727 Vol.
26%
$1.5B–$1.75B
$9,526 Vol.
6%
$1.75B–$2.0B
$4,332 Vol.
24%
$2.0B–$2.5B
$815 Vol.
9%
$2.5B–$3.0B
$599 Vol.
14%
$3.0B+
$714 Vol.
16%
No IPO before August 2026
$1,437 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Deep Fission’s proposed Nasdaq IPO, announced May 20, 2026, targets a $1.66 billion valuation at the $24–$26 per share midpoint for roughly 6 million shares plus the greenshoe option, aiming to raise $150–157 million.** Traders have assigned the highest implied probability (52%) to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion because the pre-revenue nuclear startup faces intense skepticism over its unproven borehole SMR design, execution risks for a first reactor targeted in 2026, and limited commercial traction despite DOE Reactor Pilot Program selection and an earlier $80 million financing round. Media coverage, including TechCrunch questioning the repeat public-listing attempt after a non-trading 2025 SPAC merger, and Seeking Alpha labeling the valuation “ultra-speculative,” has weighed on sentiment. The next most likely band ($1.25–1.5 billion at 26.4%) reflects partial absorption of the offering, while probabilities drop sharply above $1.75 billion given the company’s early-stage status and typical post-IPO volatility for similar advanced nuclear plays. The 20.5% chance of no IPO before August 2026 captures ongoing roadshow uncertainty and potential delays in SEC clearance or weak institutional demand. Key upcoming catalysts include final pricing, Nasdaq listing under FISN, and any NRC pre-application updates that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$19,221Date de fin
29 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Deep Fission’s proposed Nasdaq IPO, announced May 20, 2026, targets a $1.66 billion valuation at the $24–$26 per share midpoint for roughly 6 million shares plus the greenshoe option, aiming to raise $150–157 million.** Traders have assigned the highest implied probability (52%) to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion because the pre-revenue nuclear startup faces intense skepticism over its unproven borehole SMR design, execution risks for a first reactor targeted in 2026, and limited commercial traction despite DOE Reactor Pilot Program selection and an earlier $80 million financing round. Media coverage, including TechCrunch questioning the repeat public-listing attempt after a non-trading 2025 SPAC merger, and Seeking Alpha labeling the valuation “ultra-speculative,” has weighed on sentiment. The next most likely band ($1.25–1.5 billion at 26.4%) reflects partial absorption of the offering, while probabilities drop sharply above $1.75 billion given the company’s early-stage status and typical post-IPO volatility for similar advanced nuclear plays. The 20.5% chance of no IPO before August 2026 captures ongoing roadshow uncertainty and potential delays in SEC clearance or weak institutional demand. Key upcoming catalysts include final pricing, Nasdaq listing under FISN, and any NRC pre-application updates that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$19,221Date de fin
29 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Deep Fission’s proposed Nasdaq IPO, announced May 20, 2026, targets a $1.66 billion valuation at the $24–$26 per share midpoint for roughly 6 million shares plus the greenshoe option, aiming to raise $150–157 million.** Traders have assigned the highest implied probability (52%) to a closing market cap below $1.25 billion because the pre-revenue nuclear startup faces intense skepticism over its unproven borehole SMR design, execution risks for a first reactor targeted in 2026, and limited commercial traction despite DOE Reactor Pilot Program selection and an earlier $80 million financing round. Media coverage, including TechCrunch questioning the repeat public-listing attempt after a non-trading 2025 SPAC merger, and Seeking Alpha labeling the valuation “ultra-speculative,” has weighed on sentiment. The next most likely band ($1.25–1.5 billion at 26.4%) reflects partial absorption of the offering, while probabilities drop sharply above $1.75 billion given the company’s early-stage status and typical post-IPO volatility for similar advanced nuclear plays. The 20.5% chance of no IPO before August 2026 captures ongoing roadshow uncertainty and potential delays in SEC clearance or weak institutional demand. Key upcoming catalysts include final pricing, Nasdaq listing under FISN, and any NRC pre-application updates that could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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