US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including the March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and the subsequent naval blockade, represent the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment on this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, while the strait accounts for about 20% of global oil supply, sustaining elevated Brent prices near $88 per barrel with a notable geopolitical risk premium amid tanker attacks and stalled June MOU negotiations. Traders assigning low implied probabilities to any island falling outside Iranian control reflect the substantial economic downside of such an outcome, including broader supply disruptions and potential global recession risks, consistent with historical precedent for chokepoint volatility. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or data on Hormuz traffic volumes through September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,726 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 Vol.
August 31
$23,708 Vol.
1%
September 30
$68,018 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including the March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and the subsequent naval blockade, represent the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment on this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, while the strait accounts for about 20% of global oil supply, sustaining elevated Brent prices near $88 per barrel with a notable geopolitical risk premium amid tanker attacks and stalled June MOU negotiations. Traders assigning low implied probabilities to any island falling outside Iranian control reflect the substantial economic downside of such an outcome, including broader supply disruptions and potential global recession risks, consistent with historical precedent for chokepoint volatility. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or data on Hormuz traffic volumes through September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$91,726Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including the March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and the subsequent naval blockade, represent the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment on this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, while the strait accounts for about 20% of global oil supply, sustaining elevated Brent prices near $88 per barrel with a notable geopolitical risk premium amid tanker attacks and stalled June MOU negotiations. Traders assigning low implied probabilities to any island falling outside Iranian control reflect the substantial economic downside of such an outcome, including broader supply disruptions and potential global recession risks, consistent with historical precedent for chokepoint volatility. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or data on Hormuz traffic volumes through September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$91,726Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including the March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military infrastructure and the subsequent naval blockade, represent the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment on this market. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, while the strait accounts for about 20% of global oil supply, sustaining elevated Brent prices near $88 per barrel with a notable geopolitical risk premium amid tanker attacks and stalled June MOU negotiations. Traders assigning low implied probabilities to any island falling outside Iranian control reflect the substantial economic downside of such an outcome, including broader supply disruptions and potential global recession risks, consistent with historical precedent for chokepoint volatility. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or data on Hormuz traffic volumes through September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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