Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, constitutionally ineligible for re-election, faces the end of his single four-year term in August 2026 amid ongoing legislative and judicial constraints on his reform agenda. Recent court rulings have blocked key elements of his economic emergency measures and pension transfers, while his Historical Pact coalition secured the largest share of seats in March congressional elections but lacks a working majority to advance major changes. U.S. scrutiny over alleged drug-trafficking links continues without formal charges, coinciding with Petro's public criticism of American policy and his push for a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. These institutional frictions, alongside scheduled presidential voting in May, shape trader assessments of the timeline for any leadership transition.