Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$1,606,172 Vol.
$1,606,172 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$1,606,172 Vol.
$1,606,172 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,606,172Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,606,172Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders place a 99.6% probability on Donald Trump remaining President past May 31 because the U.S. Constitution provides strong structural safeguards against abrupt removal during a sitting term. No active impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other formal mechanisms are underway in Congress, and the current House and Senate majorities make swift passage of such measures improbable. Historical patterns confirm that presidents complete their terms absent elections, resignation, or incapacitation, with no comparable events reported in recent weeks. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden health crisis or major scandal could still alter trajectories, though none have surfaced to challenge the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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