Traders see 36–38°C as the most likely range for Chengdu’s August 12 high because short-range forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles currently converge on a peak near 36–37°C under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds. August normally brings average daily highs of 28–31°C in the city’s humid subtropical climate, but the ongoing “dog days” (sanfu) period sustains elevated temperatures, and recent July heatwaves that pushed parts of Sichuan above 40°C have kept model guidance warmer than climatology. Limited afternoon convection is expected to cap extreme readings while preventing rapid cooling, positioning 37°C as the modal outcome and explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around the 36–38°C bin. New model runs and official updates tomorrow morning represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they revise the maximum downward.