Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 13 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 13 août ?
78-79 °F 100.0%
67°F ou moins <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 Vol.
$73,375 Vol.
13 août 2026
67°F ou moins
Non
68-69°F
Non
70-71°F
Non
72-73 °F
Non
74-75°F
Non
76-77 °F
Non
78-79 °F
Oui
80-81 °F
Non
82-83 °F
Non
84-85°F
Non
86°F ou plus
Non
78-79 °F 100.0%
67°F ou moins <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 Vol.
$73,375 Vol.
13 août 2026
67°F ou moins
$4,253 Vol.
Non
68-69°F
$3,860 Vol.
Non
70-71°F
$4,835 Vol.
Non
72-73 °F
$3,330 Vol.
Non
74-75°F
$10,630 Vol.
Non
76-77 °F
$6,317 Vol.
Non
78-79 °F
$6,493 Vol.
Oui
80-81 °F
$15,294 Vol.
Non
82-83 °F
$7,734 Vol.
Non
84-85°F
$3,580 Vol.
Non
86°F ou plus
$7,050 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$73,375Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73,375Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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