Current forecasts from meteorological models position an 28°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 13, aligning with the market's 71.5% implied probability for that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 28°C under subtropical high pressure, moderated by the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara, which promote sea-breeze circulation that often caps afternoon peaks while elevating humidity. Subtle variations in boundary-layer moisture, wind timing, and urban heat-island effects explain the secondary 23.5% weighting on 27°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from seasonal baselines or incoming frontal systems that would push temperatures to 29°C or above, keeping higher outcomes at minimal probabilities. Updated guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will provide the final observational data for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 13 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 13 août ?
28°C 63%
27°C 37%
29°C 2.9%
30°C <1%
$25,001 Vol.
$25,001 Vol.
13 août 2026
23°C ou moins
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
37%
28°C
63%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C ou plus
<1%
28°C 63%
27°C 37%
29°C 2.9%
30°C <1%
$25,001 Vol.
$25,001 Vol.
13 août 2026
23°C ou moins
$447 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$667 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,147 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,388 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$7,290 Vol.
37%
28°C
$6,053 Vol.
63%
29°C
$2,372 Vol.
3%
30°C
$2,291 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$805 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
33°C ou plus
$267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models position an 28°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 13, aligning with the market's 71.5% implied probability for that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 28°C under subtropical high pressure, moderated by the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara, which promote sea-breeze circulation that often caps afternoon peaks while elevating humidity. Subtle variations in boundary-layer moisture, wind timing, and urban heat-island effects explain the secondary 23.5% weighting on 27°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from seasonal baselines or incoming frontal systems that would push temperatures to 29°C or above, keeping higher outcomes at minimal probabilities. Updated guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will provide the final observational data for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$25,001Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models position an 28°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 13, aligning with the market's 71.5% implied probability for that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 28°C under subtropical high pressure, moderated by the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara, which promote sea-breeze circulation that often caps afternoon peaks while elevating humidity. Subtle variations in boundary-layer moisture, wind timing, and urban heat-island effects explain the secondary 23.5% weighting on 27°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from seasonal baselines or incoming frontal systems that would push temperatures to 29°C or above, keeping higher outcomes at minimal probabilities. Updated guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will provide the final observational data for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,001Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological models position an 28°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 13, aligning with the market's 71.5% implied probability for that threshold. August climatology features average highs near 28°C under subtropical high pressure, moderated by the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara, which promote sea-breeze circulation that often caps afternoon peaks while elevating humidity. Subtle variations in boundary-layer moisture, wind timing, and urban heat-island effects explain the secondary 23.5% weighting on 27°C. Recent model runs show no significant deviations from seasonal baselines or incoming frontal systems that would push temperatures to 29°C or above, keeping higher outcomes at minimal probabilities. Updated guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will provide the final observational data for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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