Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate models project a Moscow daytime maximum of 20–21°C on August 15 under partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds, aligning closely with the market’s leading 20°C outcome at 50.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August conditions moderated by a transient high-pressure ridge that limits strong warming, keeping highs near the long-term seasonal average of ~20–22°C rather than allowing excursions above 23°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with low precipitation chances and no significant frontal passages expected to alter the thermal profile before resolution. Traders appear to weight these stable model runs heavily, resulting in tight clustering around 19–21°C while assigning negligible odds to outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Moscou le 15 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Moscou le 15 août ?
20°C 50%
19°C 28%
21°C 14%
18°C 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 août 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
28%
20°C
50%
21°C
14%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 50%
19°C 28%
21°C 14%
18°C 4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 août 2026
15°C or below
$392 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$87 Vol.
1%
17°C
$419 Vol.
1%
18°C
$399 Vol.
4%
19°C
$463 Vol.
28%
20°C
$1,362 Vol.
50%
21°C
$319 Vol.
14%
22°C
$263 Vol.
4%
23°C
$138 Vol.
2%
24°C
$168 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$196 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate models project a Moscow daytime maximum of 20–21°C on August 15 under partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds, aligning closely with the market’s leading 20°C outcome at 50.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August conditions moderated by a transient high-pressure ridge that limits strong warming, keeping highs near the long-term seasonal average of ~20–22°C rather than allowing excursions above 23°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with low precipitation chances and no significant frontal passages expected to alter the thermal profile before resolution. Traders appear to weight these stable model runs heavily, resulting in tight clustering around 19–21°C while assigning negligible odds to outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,205Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate models project a Moscow daytime maximum of 20–21°C on August 15 under partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds, aligning closely with the market’s leading 20°C outcome at 50.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August conditions moderated by a transient high-pressure ridge that limits strong warming, keeping highs near the long-term seasonal average of ~20–22°C rather than allowing excursions above 23°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with low precipitation chances and no significant frontal passages expected to alter the thermal profile before resolution. Traders appear to weight these stable model runs heavily, resulting in tight clustering around 19–21°C while assigning negligible odds to outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,205Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate models project a Moscow daytime maximum of 20–21°C on August 15 under partly cloudy skies with light northwesterly winds, aligning closely with the market’s leading 20°C outcome at 50.5% implied probability. This reflects typical late-August conditions moderated by a transient high-pressure ridge that limits strong warming, keeping highs near the long-term seasonal average of ~20–22°C rather than allowing excursions above 23°C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with low precipitation chances and no significant frontal passages expected to alter the thermal profile before resolution. Traders appear to weight these stable model runs heavily, resulting in tight clustering around 19–21°C while assigning negligible odds to outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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