Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are driving model consensus for Madrid’s peak temperature on August 13 into the 38–40 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration on 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (32 %). AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS guidance highlight strong daytime heating from a midsummer ridge, low soil moisture on the Iberian Plateau, and minimal wind mixing, with ensemble spreads remaining modest two days out. These conditions exceed the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C and reflect ongoing anomalous warmth, though any timing shift in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the maximum by a degree. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 13 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 13 août ?
39°C 52%
40°C 32%
38°C 10%
41°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 août 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
10%
39°C
52%
40°C
32%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C ou plus
<1%
39°C 52%
40°C 32%
38°C 10%
41°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 août 2026
35°C or below
$188 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$225 Vol.
1%
37°C
$344 Vol.
2%
38°C
$418 Vol.
10%
39°C
$1,176 Vol.
52%
40°C
$6,324 Vol.
32%
41°C
$515 Vol.
6%
42°C
$265 Vol.
2%
43°C
$166 Vol.
1%
44°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
45°C ou plus
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are driving model consensus for Madrid’s peak temperature on August 13 into the 38–40 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration on 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (32 %). AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS guidance highlight strong daytime heating from a midsummer ridge, low soil moisture on the Iberian Plateau, and minimal wind mixing, with ensemble spreads remaining modest two days out. These conditions exceed the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C and reflect ongoing anomalous warmth, though any timing shift in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the maximum by a degree. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$9,966Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are driving model consensus for Madrid’s peak temperature on August 13 into the 38–40 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration on 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (32 %). AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS guidance highlight strong daytime heating from a midsummer ridge, low soil moisture on the Iberian Plateau, and minimal wind mixing, with ensemble spreads remaining modest two days out. These conditions exceed the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C and reflect ongoing anomalous warmth, though any timing shift in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the maximum by a degree. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,966Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are driving model consensus for Madrid’s peak temperature on August 13 into the 38–40 °C range, aligning with the market’s concentration on 39 °C (49.5 %) and 40 °C (32 %). AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS guidance highlight strong daytime heating from a midsummer ridge, low soil moisture on the Iberian Plateau, and minimal wind mixing, with ensemble spreads remaining modest two days out. These conditions exceed the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C and reflect ongoing anomalous warmth, though any timing shift in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the maximum by a degree. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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