Recent forecasts from models including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance indicate Chengdu will experience peak highs of 36–38°C on August 13 under persistent subtropical high pressure promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and limited cloud cover that supports surface heating. This setup aligns with typical mid-August climatology for the Sichuan Basin, where seasonal norms reach the low-to-mid 30s Celsius but elevated ridges can push extremes several degrees higher amid high humidity. Trader emphasis on 37°C as the plurality outcome reflects consensus around these model runs, with modest probability mass on 38°C if downslope warming or delayed convection materializes; lower outcomes gain traction only if unexpected moisture or frontal passage arrives sooner than currently projected. Updated guidance ahead of the date will clarify any shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions.