**Latest forecast model runs from European and Spanish meteorological agencies position 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s 98.5% combined implied probability.** Persistent high-pressure systems and subsidence have maintained clear skies and strong daytime solar heating across the central plateau, while a modest northwesterly flow has prevented further intensification seen in earlier summer heatwaves. Typical mid-August climatology for Madrid shows average highs near 32–33°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 33–36°C, with limited spread among runs; resolution hinges on the precise timing of any afternoon cooling or localized wind shifts. Traders are weighting real-time observational data and updated guidance from AEMET and ECMWF, which continue to favor the narrow 34–35°C band over extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 16 août ?
34°C 65%
35°C 36%
36°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$110,559 Vol.
$110,559 Vol.
16 août 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
65%
35°C
36%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
34°C 65%
35°C 36%
36°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$110,559 Vol.
$110,559 Vol.
16 août 2026
27°C or below
$2,253 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,177 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$15,110 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$10,349 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$21,482 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$18,836 Vol.
65%
35°C
$19,779 Vol.
36%
36°C
$12,238 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$5,279 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast model runs from European and Spanish meteorological agencies position 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s 98.5% combined implied probability.** Persistent high-pressure systems and subsidence have maintained clear skies and strong daytime solar heating across the central plateau, while a modest northwesterly flow has prevented further intensification seen in earlier summer heatwaves. Typical mid-August climatology for Madrid shows average highs near 32–33°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 33–36°C, with limited spread among runs; resolution hinges on the precise timing of any afternoon cooling or localized wind shifts. Traders are weighting real-time observational data and updated guidance from AEMET and ECMWF, which continue to favor the narrow 34–35°C band over extremes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$110,559Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast model runs from European and Spanish meteorological agencies position 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s 98.5% combined implied probability.** Persistent high-pressure systems and subsidence have maintained clear skies and strong daytime solar heating across the central plateau, while a modest northwesterly flow has prevented further intensification seen in earlier summer heatwaves. Typical mid-August climatology for Madrid shows average highs near 32–33°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 33–36°C, with limited spread among runs; resolution hinges on the precise timing of any afternoon cooling or localized wind shifts. Traders are weighting real-time observational data and updated guidance from AEMET and ECMWF, which continue to favor the narrow 34–35°C band over extremes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$110,559Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest forecast model runs from European and Spanish meteorological agencies position 34–35°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s 98.5% combined implied probability.** Persistent high-pressure systems and subsidence have maintained clear skies and strong daytime solar heating across the central plateau, while a modest northwesterly flow has prevented further intensification seen in earlier summer heatwaves. Typical mid-August climatology for Madrid shows average highs near 32–33°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 33–36°C, with limited spread among runs; resolution hinges on the precise timing of any afternoon cooling or localized wind shifts. Traders are weighting real-time observational data and updated guidance from AEMET and ECMWF, which continue to favor the narrow 34–35°C band over extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes