Recent forecast consensus from agencies including Meteo-France, ECMWF, and GFS runs positions 37–39 °C as the most likely peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that enhance daytime heating during an ongoing heatwave. Model guidance consistently shows afternoon maxima near 38–39 °C under light northeasterly flow, with limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 39 °C (65.5 %) over 38 °C (20.5 %) or 40 °C (10.5 %), as traders weigh the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Updated model cycles over the next 24 hours will refine any late adjustments from local advection or urban heat-island effects before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Paris le 14 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Paris le 14 août ?
39°C 66%
38°C 21%
40°C 10%
37°C 3%
NOUVEAU
$15,513 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,513 Vol.
14 août 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
21%
39°C
66%
40°C
10%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 66%
38°C 21%
40°C 10%
37°C 3%
NOUVEAU
$15,513 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,513 Vol.
14 août 2026
35°C or below
$1,339 Vol.
1%
36°C
$1,107 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,931 Vol.
3%
38°C
$2,327 Vol.
21%
39°C
$4,102 Vol.
66%
40°C
$1,218 Vol.
10%
41°C
$1,095 Vol.
2%
42°C
$883 Vol.
1%
43°C
$508 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$447 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including Meteo-France, ECMWF, and GFS runs positions 37–39 °C as the most likely peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that enhance daytime heating during an ongoing heatwave. Model guidance consistently shows afternoon maxima near 38–39 °C under light northeasterly flow, with limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 39 °C (65.5 %) over 38 °C (20.5 %) or 40 °C (10.5 %), as traders weigh the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Updated model cycles over the next 24 hours will refine any late adjustments from local advection or urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,513Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including Meteo-France, ECMWF, and GFS runs positions 37–39 °C as the most likely peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that enhance daytime heating during an ongoing heatwave. Model guidance consistently shows afternoon maxima near 38–39 °C under light northeasterly flow, with limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 39 °C (65.5 %) over 38 °C (20.5 %) or 40 °C (10.5 %), as traders weigh the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Updated model cycles over the next 24 hours will refine any late adjustments from local advection or urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,513Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from agencies including Meteo-France, ECMWF, and GFS runs positions 37–39 °C as the most likely peak for Paris on August 14, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that enhance daytime heating during an ongoing heatwave. Model guidance consistently shows afternoon maxima near 38–39 °C under light northeasterly flow, with limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 39 °C (65.5 %) over 38 °C (20.5 %) or 40 °C (10.5 %), as traders weigh the narrow uncertainty range in ensemble outputs and the resolution criteria tied to official station readings. Updated model cycles over the next 24 hours will refine any late adjustments from local advection or urban heat-island effects before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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