Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.7 percent amid sticky inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3 percent. Persistent price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and widening federal deficits have lifted the term premium and reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. Market pricing now incorporates the possibility of one or two federal funds rate increases by year-end 2026 rather than cuts, supporting higher long-term yields. Fiscal supply concerns and competing corporate issuance further pressure the curve. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus FOMC communications that will shape trader views on whether yields test levels above 5 percent before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$287,871 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
4,8 %
67%
5,0 %
23%
5,2 %
8%
5,5 %
5%
5,7 %
4%
6,0 %
3%
$287,871 Vol.
4,8 %
$59,868 Vol.
67%
5,0 %
$82,104 Vol.
23%
5,2 %
$26,383 Vol.
8%
5,5 %
$5,832 Vol.
5%
5,7 %
$4,262 Vol.
4%
6,0 %
$3,136 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.7 percent amid sticky inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3 percent. Persistent price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and widening federal deficits have lifted the term premium and reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. Market pricing now incorporates the possibility of one or two federal funds rate increases by year-end 2026 rather than cuts, supporting higher long-term yields. Fiscal supply concerns and competing corporate issuance further pressure the curve. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus FOMC communications that will shape trader views on whether yields test levels above 5 percent before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$287,871Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.7 percent amid sticky inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3 percent. Persistent price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and widening federal deficits have lifted the term premium and reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. Market pricing now incorporates the possibility of one or two federal funds rate increases by year-end 2026 rather than cuts, supporting higher long-term yields. Fiscal supply concerns and competing corporate issuance further pressure the curve. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus FOMC communications that will shape trader views on whether yields test levels above 5 percent before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$287,871Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.7 percent amid sticky inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3 percent. Persistent price pressures, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and widening federal deficits have lifted the term premium and reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. Market pricing now incorporates the possibility of one or two federal funds rate increases by year-end 2026 rather than cuts, supporting higher long-term yields. Fiscal supply concerns and competing corporate issuance further pressure the curve. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus FOMC communications that will shape trader views on whether yields test levels above 5 percent before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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