Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, matching the leading market outcome. This tally includes several long-serving members opting to retire after decades in office, alongside others pursuing different roles, amid a broader pattern of elevated congressional turnover. Primary drivers include advanced age for key figures, institutional fatigue, and personal decisions to exit rather than face primary or general-election contests. With filing deadlines still ahead in multiple states, traders assign meaningful probability to additional announcements that could shift the final count, though recent weeks have shown limited movement beyond the established seven. The current pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural and individual factors shaping the remaining Senate class.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7 65%
11 20.6%
8 14.6%
6 10.2%
$73,769 Vol.
$73,769 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
1%
5
4%
6
10%
7
65%
8
17%
9
4%
10
2%
11
21%
12 ou plus
1%
7 65%
11 20.6%
8 14.6%
6 10.2%
$73,769 Vol.
$73,769 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
4%
6
$26,450 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
65%
8
$1,599 Vol.
17%
9
$1,328 Vol.
4%
10
$1,303 Vol.
2%
11
$923 Vol.
21%
12 ou plus
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, matching the leading market outcome. This tally includes several long-serving members opting to retire after decades in office, alongside others pursuing different roles, amid a broader pattern of elevated congressional turnover. Primary drivers include advanced age for key figures, institutional fatigue, and personal decisions to exit rather than face primary or general-election contests. With filing deadlines still ahead in multiple states, traders assign meaningful probability to additional announcements that could shift the final count, though recent weeks have shown limited movement beyond the established seven. The current pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural and individual factors shaping the remaining Senate class.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,769Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, matching the leading market outcome. This tally includes several long-serving members opting to retire after decades in office, alongside others pursuing different roles, amid a broader pattern of elevated congressional turnover. Primary drivers include advanced age for key figures, institutional fatigue, and personal decisions to exit rather than face primary or general-election contests. With filing deadlines still ahead in multiple states, traders assign meaningful probability to additional announcements that could shift the final count, though recent weeks have shown limited movement beyond the established seven. The current pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural and individual factors shaping the remaining Senate class.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,769Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, matching the leading market outcome. This tally includes several long-serving members opting to retire after decades in office, alongside others pursuing different roles, amid a broader pattern of elevated congressional turnover. Primary drivers include advanced age for key figures, institutional fatigue, and personal decisions to exit rather than face primary or general-election contests. With filing deadlines still ahead in multiple states, traders assign meaningful probability to additional announcements that could shift the final count, though recent weeks have shown limited movement beyond the established seven. The current pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural and individual factors shaping the remaining Senate class.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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