**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 7 septembre dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 7 septembre dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
190-209 100.0%
230+ 5.0%
210-229 4.2%
<170 <1%
$47,984 Vol.
$47,984 Vol.
13 sept. 2026
<170
Non
170-189
Non
190-209
Oui
210-229
Non
230+
Non
190-209 100.0%
230+ 5.0%
210-229 4.2%
<170 <1%
$47,984 Vol.
$47,984 Vol.
13 sept. 2026
<170
$15,898 Vol.
Non
170-189
$3,049 Vol.
Non
190-209
$4,187 Vol.
Oui
210-229
$2,392 Vol.
Non
230+
$22,458 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$47,984Date de fin
13 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$47,984Date de fin
13 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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