Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a May 6-7 event across the Southeast and Plains that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month totals toward or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 265-280 tornadoes for May. Trader consensus now clusters around the 200-289 range because the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks continue to highlight enhanced and moderate risks through mid-to-late May, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear that favor discrete supercells. Remaining uncertainty stems from how quickly these patterns evolve over the next two weeks, with any extended stable high-pressure ridge potentially suppressing counts toward the lower bins while additional strong troughs could push totals higher.