Hu Jintao, now in his mid-80s, has not made a confirmed in-person public appearance since the December 2022 tribute for Jiang Zemin. Chinese state media have listed him among retired elders sending formal condolences for recent deaths, including that of Zhu Rongji in August 2026, but he has been absent from ceremonies, parades, and memorial events. Reports from mid-2026 noted a further decline in his health, consistent with his visibly frail condition at the 2022 Party Congress when he was escorted from the hall. With roughly three months left until the December 31 cutoff and no scheduled occasions or credible sightings reported, traders assign the “No” outcome a 95.2% implied probability. A late-year improvement sufficient for an official appearance or a deliberate Party decision to display him at a major gathering remain the primary, albeit low-probability, paths that could still shift the outcome.