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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

icon for Leader iranien fin 2026 ?
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.8%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.9%

Pas de chef d'État 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,368 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.8%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.9%

Pas de chef d'État 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,368 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,914,872 Vol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$202,799 Vol.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$224,154 Vol.

4%

Pas de chef d'État

$459,324 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$185,334 Vol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$271,083 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$324,648 Vol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$833,426 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$110,580 Vol.

1%

Maryam Radjavi

$291,446 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$785,882 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$299,020 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$420,949 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$48,234 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$62,223 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$285,850 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$175,162 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$49,640 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$61,355 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$85,198 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$74,836 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,309 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,010 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$47,973 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,412 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$80,314 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$64,972 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$31,241 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,664 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediaries—yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,051,368
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediaries—yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,051,368
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 64%, suivi de « Reza Pahlavi » à 8%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 64¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $8.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 64%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reza Pahlavi » à 8%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.