Iran’s ongoing efforts to control maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of this market. Following the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian forces have repeatedly targeted or struck commercial vessels that bypass designated routes or ignore warnings, including attacks on three ships in early July and additional incidents on August 8 and 13–14. The most recent events involved ADNOC tankers hit by projectiles in the strait, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia attributed directly to Iran. These actions occur against a backdrop of low daily transits, a reinstated U.S. naval blockade, Iranian parliamentary plans to restrict U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels while imposing fees, and parallel talks with Oman on route administration. Trader consensus on near-term dates reflects the pattern of intermittent but recurring Iranian strikes amid unresolved disputes over passage rights and enforcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,402 Vol.
14 août 2026
15 août
3%
16 août
10%
17 août
23%
18 août
14%
19 août
15%
August 20
14%
21 août
13%
22 août
14%
August 23
14%
24 août
14%
25 août
15%
26 août
14%
27 août
12%
August 28
14%
29 août
17%
30 août
13%
31 août
13%
$156,402 Vol.
15 août
$6,863 Vol.
3%
16 août
$3,243 Vol.
10%
17 août
$710 Vol.
23%
18 août
$514 Vol.
14%
19 août
$3,991 Vol.
15%
August 20
$1,557 Vol.
14%
21 août
$1,259 Vol.
13%
22 août
$545 Vol.
14%
August 23
$3,009 Vol.
14%
24 août
$6,259 Vol.
14%
25 août
$116 Vol.
15%
26 août
$768 Vol.
14%
27 août
$408 Vol.
12%
August 28
$1,252 Vol.
14%
29 août
$2,033 Vol.
17%
30 août
$240 Vol.
13%
31 août
$1,767 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing efforts to control maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of this market. Following the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian forces have repeatedly targeted or struck commercial vessels that bypass designated routes or ignore warnings, including attacks on three ships in early July and additional incidents on August 8 and 13–14. The most recent events involved ADNOC tankers hit by projectiles in the strait, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia attributed directly to Iran. These actions occur against a backdrop of low daily transits, a reinstated U.S. naval blockade, Iranian parliamentary plans to restrict U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels while imposing fees, and parallel talks with Oman on route administration. Trader consensus on near-term dates reflects the pattern of intermittent but recurring Iranian strikes amid unresolved disputes over passage rights and enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$156,402Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Contesté
Résultat proposé: Oui
Contesté
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing efforts to control maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of this market. Following the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian forces have repeatedly targeted or struck commercial vessels that bypass designated routes or ignore warnings, including attacks on three ships in early July and additional incidents on August 8 and 13–14. The most recent events involved ADNOC tankers hit by projectiles in the strait, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia attributed directly to Iran. These actions occur against a backdrop of low daily transits, a reinstated U.S. naval blockade, Iranian parliamentary plans to restrict U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels while imposing fees, and parallel talks with Oman on route administration. Trader consensus on near-term dates reflects the pattern of intermittent but recurring Iranian strikes amid unresolved disputes over passage rights and enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$156,402Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Contesté
Résultat proposé: Oui
Contesté
Résultat final: Oui
Iran’s ongoing efforts to control maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of this market. Following the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, Iranian forces have repeatedly targeted or struck commercial vessels that bypass designated routes or ignore warnings, including attacks on three ships in early July and additional incidents on August 8 and 13–14. The most recent events involved ADNOC tankers hit by projectiles in the strait, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia attributed directly to Iran. These actions occur against a backdrop of low daily transits, a reinstated U.S. naval blockade, Iranian parliamentary plans to restrict U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels while imposing fees, and parallel talks with Oman on route administration. Trader consensus on near-term dates reflects the pattern of intermittent but recurring Iranian strikes amid unresolved disputes over passage rights and enforcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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