Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through missile, drone, and mine threats against commercial vessels have remained the central driver of market pricing since the February 2026 escalation and the breakdown of the June ceasefire. Iranian forces and proxies struck multiple tankers and cargo ships in July, prompting repeated U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and missile sites plus an ongoing naval blockade. Traders weigh continued Iranian warnings, unverified mine claims, and Houthi preparations near Bab el-Mandeb as signals of sustained risk, while reduced traffic volumes and diplomatic talks on route protocols introduce countervailing uncertainty. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include any new attacks within the resolution window, U.S. enforcement actions, or verifiable progress toward a shipping agreement by late August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,490 Vol.
15 août 2026
15 août
3%
16 août
18%
17 août
28%
18 août
18%
19 août
13%
August 20
15%
21 août
13%
22 août
20%
August 23
13%
24 août
14%
25 août
28%
26 août
27%
27 août
12%
August 28
14%
29 août
23%
30 août
12%
31 août
13%
$156,490 Vol.
15 août
$6,863 Vol.
3%
16 août
$3,243 Vol.
18%
17 août
$758 Vol.
28%
18 août
$514 Vol.
18%
19 août
$4,011 Vol.
13%
August 20
$1,557 Vol.
15%
21 août
$1,259 Vol.
13%
22 août
$545 Vol.
20%
August 23
$3,009 Vol.
13%
24 août
$6,259 Vol.
14%
25 août
$116 Vol.
28%
26 août
$768 Vol.
27%
27 août
$408 Vol.
12%
August 28
$1,252 Vol.
14%
29 août
$2,033 Vol.
23%
30 août
$260 Vol.
12%
31 août
$1,767 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through missile, drone, and mine threats against commercial vessels have remained the central driver of market pricing since the February 2026 escalation and the breakdown of the June ceasefire. Iranian forces and proxies struck multiple tankers and cargo ships in July, prompting repeated U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and missile sites plus an ongoing naval blockade. Traders weigh continued Iranian warnings, unverified mine claims, and Houthi preparations near Bab el-Mandeb as signals of sustained risk, while reduced traffic volumes and diplomatic talks on route protocols introduce countervailing uncertainty. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include any new attacks within the resolution window, U.S. enforcement actions, or verifiable progress toward a shipping agreement by late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$156,490Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through missile, drone, and mine threats against commercial vessels have remained the central driver of market pricing since the February 2026 escalation and the breakdown of the June ceasefire. Iranian forces and proxies struck multiple tankers and cargo ships in July, prompting repeated U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and missile sites plus an ongoing naval blockade. Traders weigh continued Iranian warnings, unverified mine claims, and Houthi preparations near Bab el-Mandeb as signals of sustained risk, while reduced traffic volumes and diplomatic talks on route protocols introduce countervailing uncertainty. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include any new attacks within the resolution window, U.S. enforcement actions, or verifiable progress toward a shipping agreement by late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$156,490Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through missile, drone, and mine threats against commercial vessels have remained the central driver of market pricing since the February 2026 escalation and the breakdown of the June ceasefire. Iranian forces and proxies struck multiple tankers and cargo ships in July, prompting repeated U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and missile sites plus an ongoing naval blockade. Traders weigh continued Iranian warnings, unverified mine claims, and Houthi preparations near Bab el-Mandeb as signals of sustained risk, while reduced traffic volumes and diplomatic talks on route protocols introduce countervailing uncertainty. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include any new attacks within the resolution window, U.S. enforcement actions, or verifiable progress toward a shipping agreement by late August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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