Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, with moderate to strong southwesterly winds and widespread cloud cover plus showers, is the main driver keeping trader focus on cooler overnight minima for Manila on August 31. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate daytime highs near 28–30 °C and nighttime lows of 25–27 °C under continued humid, overcast conditions that limit radiational cooling. These patterns align with historical late-August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–26 °C. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weight on 21 °C or below (41 %), followed by 26 °C and 27 °C, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential for brief clearer intervals or heavier rain to nudge readings lower before resolution. Fresh model updates and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus basse à Manille le 31 août ?
Température la plus basse à Manille le 31 août ?
21°C or below 88%
25°C 49%
30°C 47%
24°C 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
21°C or below
88%
22°C
8%
23°C
26%
24°C
46%
25°C
49%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
46%
29°C
24%
30°C
47%
31°C ou plus
2%
21°C or below 88%
25°C 49%
30°C 47%
24°C 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
46%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
46%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
47%
31°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, with moderate to strong southwesterly winds and widespread cloud cover plus showers, is the main driver keeping trader focus on cooler overnight minima for Manila on August 31. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate daytime highs near 28–30 °C and nighttime lows of 25–27 °C under continued humid, overcast conditions that limit radiational cooling. These patterns align with historical late-August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–26 °C. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weight on 21 °C or below (41 %), followed by 26 °C and 27 °C, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential for brief clearer intervals or heavier rain to nudge readings lower before resolution. Fresh model updates and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, with moderate to strong southwesterly winds and widespread cloud cover plus showers, is the main driver keeping trader focus on cooler overnight minima for Manila on August 31. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate daytime highs near 28–30 °C and nighttime lows of 25–27 °C under continued humid, overcast conditions that limit radiational cooling. These patterns align with historical late-August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–26 °C. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weight on 21 °C or below (41 %), followed by 26 °C and 27 °C, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential for brief clearer intervals or heavier rain to nudge readings lower before resolution. Fresh model updates and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon, with moderate to strong southwesterly winds and widespread cloud cover plus showers, is the main driver keeping trader focus on cooler overnight minima for Manila on August 31. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate daytime highs near 28–30 °C and nighttime lows of 25–27 °C under continued humid, overcast conditions that limit radiational cooling. These patterns align with historical late-August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–26 °C. Market-implied odds place the heaviest weight on 21 °C or below (41 %), followed by 26 °C and 27 °C, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential for brief clearer intervals or heavier rain to nudge readings lower before resolution. Fresh model updates and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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