**Persistent subtropical summer conditions and limited nocturnal cooling are anchoring trader expectations for a 26°C minimum in Shanghai today.** August climatology in the region features average overnight lows near 25°C amid high humidity (often 75-85%) and frequent cloud cover from monsoon influences, which trap heat and suppress radiative cooling. Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a low of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with passing showers or thunderstorms, conditions that typically prevent temperatures from falling further. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability in steering patterns and moisture, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25-26°C; the 89.5% implied probability on 26°C reflects this consensus, with tail risks for 25°C or lower requiring clearer skies and drier air than projected. Upcoming hourly observations and any revised NMC guidance could still shift probabilities if skies clear more than expected overnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 16 août ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 16 août ?
26°C 90%
25°C 6%
24°C 3.5%
23°C 1.0%
$17,470 Vol.
$17,470 Vol.
16 août 2026
20°C ou moins
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
6%
26°C
90%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C ou plus
<1%
26°C 90%
25°C 6%
24°C 3.5%
23°C 1.0%
$17,470 Vol.
$17,470 Vol.
16 août 2026
20°C ou moins
$323 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$522 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,492 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,586 Vol.
3%
25°C
$3,348 Vol.
6%
26°C
$6,012 Vol.
90%
27°C
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,108 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
30°C ou plus
$345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical summer conditions and limited nocturnal cooling are anchoring trader expectations for a 26°C minimum in Shanghai today.**
August climatology in the region features average overnight lows near 25°C amid high humidity (often 75-85%) and frequent cloud cover from monsoon influences, which trap heat and suppress radiative cooling. Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a low of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with passing showers or thunderstorms, conditions that typically prevent temperatures from falling further.
Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability in steering patterns and moisture, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25-26°C; the 89.5% implied probability on 26°C reflects this consensus, with tail risks for 25°C or lower requiring clearer skies and drier air than projected. Upcoming hourly observations and any revised NMC guidance could still shift probabilities if skies clear more than expected overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$17,470Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical summer conditions and limited nocturnal cooling are anchoring trader expectations for a 26°C minimum in Shanghai today.**
August climatology in the region features average overnight lows near 25°C amid high humidity (often 75-85%) and frequent cloud cover from monsoon influences, which trap heat and suppress radiative cooling. Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a low of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with passing showers or thunderstorms, conditions that typically prevent temperatures from falling further.
Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability in steering patterns and moisture, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25-26°C; the 89.5% implied probability on 26°C reflects this consensus, with tail risks for 25°C or lower requiring clearer skies and drier air than projected. Upcoming hourly observations and any revised NMC guidance could still shift probabilities if skies clear more than expected overnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,470Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent subtropical summer conditions and limited nocturnal cooling are anchoring trader expectations for a 26°C minimum in Shanghai today.** August climatology in the region features average overnight lows near 25°C amid high humidity (often 75-85%) and frequent cloud cover from monsoon influences, which trap heat and suppress radiative cooling. Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate a low of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with passing showers or thunderstorms, conditions that typically prevent temperatures from falling further. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability in steering patterns and moisture, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25-26°C; the 89.5% implied probability on 26°C reflects this consensus, with tail risks for 25°C or lower requiring clearer skies and drier air than projected. Upcoming hourly observations and any revised NMC guidance could still shift probabilities if skies clear more than expected overnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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