**Current forecasts for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently point to a daily low near 25–26°C, supporting the market's leading 26°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local Chinese weather services and international models, list overnight and early-morning readings in the 24–26°C range under cloudy, humid conditions with light rain or thunderstorms possible. Highs are expected around 31–34°C, with only modest diurnal cooling due to high humidity (often 80–95%) and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative heat loss. **The closely matched probabilities for 20–23°C outcomes (around 44%) likely reflect trader caution around model variability and rain-cooled pockets, though these appear overstated relative to official guidance.** Subtropical Shenzhen rarely sees sharp drops in mid-September without a strong cold surge, which is absent here; historical analogs and current steering patterns favor stable warmth. Lower-probability bins (24°C at 6%, 25°C at 41%) align better with some hourly data showing brief dips near 24°C, while extremes above 27°C or below 20°C carry negligible odds given the stable airmass. **Key resolution factors include the precise minimum recorded at official stations (typically overnight into early morning) and any localized cooling from showers.** No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the consensus, keeping trader focus on the narrow 25–26°C window amid typical model spread for tropical boundary-layer temperatures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shenzhen le 15 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Shenzhen le 15 septembre ?
20°C ou moins 96%
22°C 91%
21°C 88%
23°C 88%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
20°C ou moins
96%
21°C
88%
22°C
91%
23°C
88%
24°C
6%
25°C
41%
26°C
52%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C ou plus
<1%
20°C ou moins 96%
22°C 91%
21°C 88%
23°C 88%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
20°C ou moins
$10 Vol.
96%
21°C
$10 Vol.
88%
22°C
$100 Vol.
91%
23°C
$128 Vol.
88%
24°C
$96 Vol.
6%
25°C
$22 Vol.
41%
26°C
$92 Vol.
52%
27°C
$244 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$154 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
30°C ou plus
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently point to a daily low near 25–26°C, supporting the market's leading 26°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local Chinese weather services and international models, list overnight and early-morning readings in the 24–26°C range under cloudy, humid conditions with light rain or thunderstorms possible. Highs are expected around 31–34°C, with only modest diurnal cooling due to high humidity (often 80–95%) and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative heat loss.
**The closely matched probabilities for 20–23°C outcomes (around 44%) likely reflect trader caution around model variability and rain-cooled pockets, though these appear overstated relative to official guidance.** Subtropical Shenzhen rarely sees sharp drops in mid-September without a strong cold surge, which is absent here; historical analogs and current steering patterns favor stable warmth. Lower-probability bins (24°C at 6%, 25°C at 41%) align better with some hourly data showing brief dips near 24°C, while extremes above 27°C or below 20°C carry negligible odds given the stable airmass.
**Key resolution factors include the precise minimum recorded at official stations (typically overnight into early morning) and any localized cooling from showers.** No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the consensus, keeping trader focus on the narrow 25–26°C window amid typical model spread for tropical boundary-layer temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$930Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently point to a daily low near 25–26°C, supporting the market's leading 26°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local Chinese weather services and international models, list overnight and early-morning readings in the 24–26°C range under cloudy, humid conditions with light rain or thunderstorms possible. Highs are expected around 31–34°C, with only modest diurnal cooling due to high humidity (often 80–95%) and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative heat loss.
**The closely matched probabilities for 20–23°C outcomes (around 44%) likely reflect trader caution around model variability and rain-cooled pockets, though these appear overstated relative to official guidance.** Subtropical Shenzhen rarely sees sharp drops in mid-September without a strong cold surge, which is absent here; historical analogs and current steering patterns favor stable warmth. Lower-probability bins (24°C at 6%, 25°C at 41%) align better with some hourly data showing brief dips near 24°C, while extremes above 27°C or below 20°C carry negligible odds given the stable airmass.
**Key resolution factors include the precise minimum recorded at official stations (typically overnight into early morning) and any localized cooling from showers.** No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the consensus, keeping trader focus on the narrow 25–26°C window amid typical model spread for tropical boundary-layer temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$930Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently point to a daily low near 25–26°C, supporting the market's leading 26°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local Chinese weather services and international models, list overnight and early-morning readings in the 24–26°C range under cloudy, humid conditions with light rain or thunderstorms possible. Highs are expected around 31–34°C, with only modest diurnal cooling due to high humidity (often 80–95%) and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative heat loss. **The closely matched probabilities for 20–23°C outcomes (around 44%) likely reflect trader caution around model variability and rain-cooled pockets, though these appear overstated relative to official guidance.** Subtropical Shenzhen rarely sees sharp drops in mid-September without a strong cold surge, which is absent here; historical analogs and current steering patterns favor stable warmth. Lower-probability bins (24°C at 6%, 25°C at 41%) align better with some hourly data showing brief dips near 24°C, while extremes above 27°C or below 20°C carry negligible odds given the stable airmass. **Key resolution factors include the precise minimum recorded at official stations (typically overnight into early morning) and any localized cooling from showers.** No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the consensus, keeping trader focus on the narrow 25–26°C window amid typical model spread for tropical boundary-layer temperatures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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