The market's overwhelming 96.2% implied probability for a 30°C high in Manila on September 15 stems from consensus meteorological forecasts showing a daily maximum near that threshold. Persistent monsoon cloud cover, high humidity near 75-85%, scattered showers, and light variable winds are suppressing peak solar heating on this date in the rainy season, aligning with long-term September climatology of 30-32°C averages. Official observations from agencies such as PAGASA will determine the exact recorded high, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than expected or steering patterns shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 15 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 15 septembre ?
30°C 99.8%
31°C 1.0%
33°C <1%
32°C <1%
NOUVEAU
$32,366 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$32,366 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
27°C ou moins
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C ou plus
<1%
30°C 99.8%
31°C 1.0%
33°C <1%
32°C <1%
NOUVEAU
$32,366 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$32,366 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
27°C ou moins
$66 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$357 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$8,603 Vol.
100%
31°C
$6,883 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5,361 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$7,539 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,758 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$66 Vol.
<1%
37°C ou plus
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 96.2% implied probability for a 30°C high in Manila on September 15 stems from consensus meteorological forecasts showing a daily maximum near that threshold. Persistent monsoon cloud cover, high humidity near 75-85%, scattered showers, and light variable winds are suppressing peak solar heating on this date in the rainy season, aligning with long-term September climatology of 30-32°C averages. Official observations from agencies such as PAGASA will determine the exact recorded high, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than expected or steering patterns shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$32,366Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 96.2% implied probability for a 30°C high in Manila on September 15 stems from consensus meteorological forecasts showing a daily maximum near that threshold. Persistent monsoon cloud cover, high humidity near 75-85%, scattered showers, and light variable winds are suppressing peak solar heating on this date in the rainy season, aligning with long-term September climatology of 30-32°C averages. Official observations from agencies such as PAGASA will determine the exact recorded high, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than expected or steering patterns shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,366Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 96.2% implied probability for a 30°C high in Manila on September 15 stems from consensus meteorological forecasts showing a daily maximum near that threshold. Persistent monsoon cloud cover, high humidity near 75-85%, scattered showers, and light variable winds are suppressing peak solar heating on this date in the rainy season, aligning with long-term September climatology of 30-32°C averages. Official observations from agencies such as PAGASA will determine the exact recorded high, with only modest upside risk if skies clear more than expected or steering patterns shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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