Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, his established record since winning the seat in 2018, and strong primary performance where he secured 63% against two challengers. Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator making her first congressional bid, faces structural headwinds including limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements that could shift momentum. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical voting patterns and current trader consensus indicate these remain low-probability factors before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-25
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-25
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, his established record since winning the seat in 2018, and strong primary performance where he secured 63% against two challengers. Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator making her first congressional bid, faces structural headwinds including limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements that could shift momentum. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical voting patterns and current trader consensus indicate these remain low-probability factors before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,113Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, his established record since winning the seat in 2018, and strong primary performance where he secured 63% against two challengers. Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator making her first congressional bid, faces structural headwinds including limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements that could shift momentum. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical voting patterns and current trader consensus indicate these remain low-probability factors before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,113Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, his established record since winning the seat in 2018, and strong primary performance where he secured 63% against two challengers. Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator making her first congressional bid, faces structural headwinds including limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive polling or endorsements that could shift momentum. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical voting patterns and current trader consensus indicate these remain low-probability factors before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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