Recent polling averages show the Partido Popular leading with roughly 32% support and Vox at 18-19%, together projecting 198-205 seats in Spain’s 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This positioning reflects a sharp decline for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, now polling near 26% after the government’s housing decrees collapsed and amid ongoing migration pressures at Ceuta, prompting the snap November 29 election. Vox has gained substantially since 2023, nearly doubling its projected representation, while the PP holds steady as the largest party. Multiple surveys, including those from 40dB and GESOP, indicate the right-wing bloc would secure a comfortable parliamentary majority in nearly all modeled outcomes, driving the current trader consensus reflected in the 78% implied probability for a PP-Vox majority.