President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 seats in Turkey’s 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to call a constitutional referendum or 400 for direct amendment, while opposition parties including the CHP continue to withhold support. Preparatory drafting began in May 2025 through an AKP commission, yet no formal package, cross-party agreement, or legislative vote has advanced far enough for an announcement by December 31, 2026. Officials have instead highlighted 2028 election timing, and recent months show no sudden political catalyst or procedural shift that would alter the timeline. Trader consensus therefore prices the “No” outcome at 86 percent, reflecting the structural barriers that have kept momentum low.