**Turkey’s ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on a new “civilian constitution” through a presidential commission appointed in May 2025, yet no referendum has been formally announced as of mid-August 2026.** President Erdoğan has repeatedly framed the effort as a long-standing national priority rather than a vehicle for extending his tenure beyond 2028, while Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism in June 2026 that adoption could occur in 2026–2027. These statements reflect ongoing drafting activity but have not translated into the parliamentary threshold required to trigger a referendum—360 seats out of 600. The AKP-led coalition currently holds roughly 321 seats, well short of the mark, and would need broader cross-party support or defections to reach even that level; 400 votes would allow direct parliamentary amendment without a public vote. Recent diplomatic moves, including efforts to conclude the PKK conflict, have been interpreted by some observers as potential avenues for securing additional backing, yet partisan divisions and the compressed timeline to year-end have kept momentum limited. Traders therefore assign an 86% probability that no referendum will be officially called by December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of any binding legislative action or public announcement to date.